Our Eph Pundit experiment seems to be a success. Others are welcomed to join in. I suspect that the debate will be most productive if we focus on specific points in a given thread. My point here is that McCain is much more likely to win because he picked Palin. Evidence below.

Consider the evidence from Intrade:

Click on the image for a clearer picture and go to Intrade for more details. Obama’s chances of winning have dropped by 4% since Palin was announced. Intrade is a betting market for politics and other events. There is a great deal of evidence that such prediction markets provide the most unbiased estimates of the likelihood of future events. It is clear that Obama’s chances of becoming president are much lower now then they were before the Palin pick. Is there another event that could explain the change? Was McCain’s speech that good? Would picking Pawlenty or Romney provided a similar bounce. No to all, I think.

In our previous thread, Soph Mom claimed:

On a positive note, every woman I know is up in arms about this, even my conservative friends. Our local Obama headquarters is overflowing with volunteers!

I am sure that this is true, but perhaps Soph Mom does not know a fair cross section of swing voters. Consider the The Secret Sorority of PTA Moms:

Democrat should not underestimate the impact of Sarah Palin on the Republican ticket. Sure, her speech lacked policy specifics and was full of inconsistencies, but she was also able to relay to millions of soccer moms out there that she was one of them.

Indeed. Note that the first comment in the thread that follows is from Professor Sam Crane.

Again, my only point in this post is that, by picking Palin, McCain maximized his chances of winning in November.

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