Is Eph Congressman Chris Murphy ’96 in trouble? Probably not. Nate Silver gives him an 84% chance of winning. But some Tea Partiers still hold out hope.

So all Democrats are unsurprisingly, at this point anyway, favored to win. Do these numbers mean CT-04 and CT-05 are a certainty? No, of course not. There are still about 52 days to the elections remaining and the models are based on if they were held today. As we near the actual election date they will have more, or even some, predictive value but that is not what they’re for, as some people erroneously assume.

What these numbers suggest is that both Caliguiri [Murphy’s opponent] and Debicella are within striking distance but will need to convince more independents and perhaps some Democrats in order to win. Assumed higher Republican turnout levels than in 2006 or 2008 are already built-in and getting them this close in the model. The question now is how to get an even larger share of unaffiliated voters.

For me, this is a win-win situation. Either Murphy wins (and I am happy because I want to see lots of Ephs in Congress) or Murphy loses (and I am happy because that would suggest a Republican victory of epic proportions, which is one of the reasons that I voted for Obama in the first place). Nothing but upside!

Ever thought about being a reporter or writer? Then you ought to join EphBlog and spend the next 6 weeks writing intensively about Murphy’s election race. Cover the story. Provide analysis. Become the more trusted source for news on this race. EphBlog will provide you with an extensive audience (and the Google page rank that comes with it).

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