Is Chris Murphy ’96 in trouble?

State Senator Sam Caligiuri tells Battle ‘10 he expects to win in Connecticut’s fifth congressional district tonight. “We’re seeing some anecdotal and hard evidence that turnout is high in quote, ‘more Republican towns,’ and maybe a little lower in traditionally Democratic towns, but those are all very preliminary numbers,” he says. “I think at the end of the day that turnout will be what it normally is, 55 to 60 percent. But who votes and voter intensity is going to favor challengers and Republicans.”

The Republican candidate started the day in Waterbury, his hometown, before heading north. Now, he’s working his way south through many of the 41 towns that make up the fifth district. As he makes his closing argument, he points to his opening one. “If you think our country is heading in the wrong direction — especially economically — then we have an opportunity to make a change by electing fiscal conservatives. I believe that we’re on the verge of a wave of freshman members [of Congress] who view the world exactly that way.”

Tonight, the places to watch are the cities: Waterbury, Danbury, Meriden, and New Britain. If Caligiuri can garner over 40 percent of the vote in the latter three, he’ll probably beat Rep. Chris Murphy. And there’s even a chance he’ll win Waterbury.

This is obviously 98% spin. But even a broken top is right once every 100 years or so . . .

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